2008 Election Coverage

Romney is on a roll, in the money and the polls

In spite of what John McCain’s mailers might say, Romney’s on a roll, leading in both in the money and the early states’ polls. Recent polls in the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire show Romney surging with a double-digit lead over Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. The Des Moines Register put Romney’s standing at 30 percent, 12 points ahead of McCain and 13 points over Giuliani. A Zogby poll in New Hampshire shows Romney at 35 percent, with both McCain and Giuliani at just 19.

After a terrific fund-raising quarter, made possible by his business connections and mormon network, he’s had a steady stream of television advertising; the one-term former governor of Massachusetts has caught the attention of both voters and political insiders.

Add comment May 23rd, 2007

Fun times at the GOP Debate

FOXNews.com relives the republican debate. I wanted to pass along this gem:

Mike Huckabee said Congress has “spent money like John Edwards at a beauty shop”. He didn’t quite earn my vote, but that’s what’s so fun about politics.

McCain took time after the debate to praise Guiliani for his poise and handling of Ron Paul implying that our policies are to blame for 9/11. And Huckabee praised him (kind of) during the debate for his integrity regarding his abortion position: “[Giuliani] has been honest about his opinion; he’s been honest about his position. And I think that’s a healthy thing for our party and for this debate.”

Gilmore referred to “Rudy McRomney,” combining the names of McCain, Giuliani and Romney. He cited Giuliani’s position on abortion rights, Huckabee’s decision to raise taxes in Arkansas and Romney’s mandate requiring universal health care while he served as the governor of Massachusetts.

“Did I get left out?” McCain asked to laughter.

“I’ll come back,” Gilmore retorted.

A few seconds later: “It’s a form of flattery to be attacked but I wish my name would get in the moniker. … I could use the bump,” Huckabee said.

Good stuff. McCain and Romney got into it a little bit:

“My fear is that McCain-Kennedy would do to immigration what McCain-Feingold has done to campaign finance and money in politics — and that’s bad,” Romney said.

McCain: “I have not changed my position on even-numbered years or changed because of the different offices that I may be running for.”

It’s a great line John but I’m not sure it’s true.

I don’t know that anyone really one, but I felt like Huckabee made himself look like a serious candidate. Gilmore is overmatched. I’ve heard him speak and he’s not very good on his feet. He can follow a script but when things go amiss he gets flustered

Add comment May 18th, 2007

Obama Locks Up Position as Anti-War Candidate

Barack Obama is barnstorming the nation this week, hoping to secure exclusivity as the anti-war candidate get republicans to vote to end the war. I think his sentiment is sincere, but I doubt his behavior would be the same if he wasn’t running for president. In an email to supporters this week, he directs them to a form on his site to email republican senators to get the votes override a veto. He says:

Barack has been traveling across the country asking people to speak out and let their Senators know that it’s time to end the Iraq war.

One Republican colleague has already called this “not Senatorial.” But this isn’t about Washington etiquette, it’s about bringing our troops home.

This isn’t a game. We need just 16 additional votes to override the president’s veto and bring to a close this sad chapter in American history.

It’s going to take some convincing, but Senators need to hear from people in their states that they can join us to bring a responsible end to the war.

That’s where you come in. In your state, an incumbent Senator who voted against ending the war will face a re-election battle in 2008. They will have to make clear very soon whether they will continue to block efforts to bring the troops home.

Will you speak out now and add your voice to the growing public pressure to end the war?

For those myopic souls wanting an immediate pullout, it seems that they’ve found their man. Edwards is talking almost exclusively about domestic issues (not really but as far as his press goes, he might as well be); Hillary is the conservative of the bunch (not surprising to anyone other than Fox News viewers) leaving the popular position for the main issue on voters’ minds for Obama to champion.

Add comment May 15th, 2007

Recent Election Goings On

It’s been a while since I posted. Romney is surging, making the election odds page out dated. He’s on the cover of time this week thanks to Slate saying we can’t elect a candidate that follows a conman (per the article, Mormonism is Scientology + 150 years). More recently, the Good Rev. Al “Rhyme Master” Sharpton told a local debate audience:

“As for the one Mormon running for office, those who really believe in God will defeat him anyways, so don’t worry about that; that’s a temporary situation,” Sharpton said during a debate with Hitchens at the New York Public Library.”

It’s one thing to say Romney believes something silly (Slate)… it’s something else to say that he doesn’t really believe it. I don’t quite understand Mr. Al (Let’s all eat some cake).

It turns out Rudy does consulting on the side more those Oxy-moron drug liars. McCain sent out an email this week:

“What does that mean for our strategy? It means that the early states: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina will become more important. These contests will set the stage and establish momentum going into Florida on January 29 and then very quickly into the February 5 contests.

As of today, Senator McCain has built a tremendous organization in those states. And, the state by state polling reveals voters in these states have heard his message and are moved by it. The American Research Group released a handful of statewide polls this week showing Senator McCain leading in the key early states: Iowa (+7), New Hampshire(+5) and South Carolina(+13). “

Anyone not employed by his campaign is coming to different conclusions, but to each his own I suppose. The democrats have been pretty boring. Obama picked up donations from 50,000 new donors last month. That’s pretty impressive. That’s about how many the next closest competitor had in Q1. Nobody else releases info like that… he just does it for the hans and frans show off / intimidation factor. Populist Edwards has introduced a number of new, detailed policy proposals, address health care, energy, education and poverty reduction. He’s proposed undoing Bush tax cuts and raising social security tax to pay for the estimated cost of $199 Kajillion / year.

Fred Thomas has preannounced his candidacy, probably eliminating Gingrich from consideration unless his sizable ego gets in the way of his reason and desire to save face. Clinton hasn’t done anything much lately. Nothing noteworthy, good or bad…. kind of a nutshell critique of her candidacy.

That’s all folks. And remember, vote early and vote often!

Add comment May 11th, 2007

Hillary Clinton Jokes

I got these great Hillary Clinton jokes in an email and I figured I’d throw them out here. Enjoy!

Late-Night Jokes About Sen. Hillary Clinton
“The first Democratic presidential debate was held earlier tonight. … Big event. It featured Senator Hillary Clinton facing off against seven men. Or, as Bill Clinton calls it, the worst porn movie plot ever.” –Conan O’Brien

“According to the New York Post, Hillary Clinton used three private jets in a single day in a campaign swing through South Carolina. And today, she was officially named a Hollywood environmentalist.” –Jay Leno

“Hillary Clinton says if she is elected president, she will use Bill Clinton as an ambassador because ’she can’t think of a better cheerleader for America.’ To which Bill Clinton said, ‘I can think of 20 and I have their phone numbers.’” –Conan O’Brien

“Although Hillary Clinton set the mark by raising $26 million for her presidential campaign in the first quarter of 2007, Mitt Romney, the Republican, was right behind her with $23 million. That’s something Hillary hasn’t felt in 20 years — a man breathing down her neck.” –Jay Leno

“Hillary Clinton said today that public appearances with her and Bill would be rare. The only thing more rare? Private appearances with her and Bill.” –Jay Leno

“Hillary Clinton’s campaign has issued a statement saying she and Bill will be together this weekend in Selma, Alabama, which will be their first joint appearance together in a month. That’s when you know you have a bad marriage — when you have to put out a press release saying you’ll be together for the weekend. You need cameras to record it, in case people don’t believe you” –Jay Leno

“According to this week’s Newsweek magazine, Hillary’s campaign refuses to consider Bill Clinton’s infidelity. … They called it ‘the elephant in the room that no one wants to address.’ Which is what got Clinton in trouble in the first place … the elephant in the room.” –Jay Leno

“You all excited about the 2008 presidential election? There’s some interesting potential matchups. For example, Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. … On the one hand, you have a pushy New Yorker with a history marital problems. Or, you have a pushy New Yorker with a history marital problems.” –David Letterman

“Hillary Clinton’s campaign wants Barack Obama to publicly renounce Hollywood producer David Geffen’s statement attacking the Clintons. … Geffen said, ‘I know everyone in politics has to lie, but the Clintons do it with such ease, it’s troubling.’ I think that’s an unfair statement. Just because you’re really good at something doesn’t mean it’s easy.” –Jay Leno

“It looks like Hollywood is starting to turn on Hillary Clinton. Hollywood mogul David Geffen — he’s given huge amounts to the Clintons — told columnist Maureen Dowd of the New York Times that Hillary Clinton is too scripted, that Bill Clinton is reckless, and both of the Clintons lie so easily it’s troubling. Bad scripts, reckless behavior, and lying — thank God that kind of thing can never happen here in Hollywood.” –Jay Leno

“The latest political rumor is that if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency, she will be replaced in the Senate by her husband, Bill Clinton. When asked about it, Bill Clinton said, ‘I dream of replacing Hillary every day.’” –Conan O’Brien

“Political experts are now saying that to win the presidency in 2008 a candidate has to get hot at the right time. After hearing this, Bill Clinton said, ‘Hillary’s doomed’” –Conan O’Brien

“Justice Department officials have determined that a president of the United States does have the legal authority to have someone killed … in the United States. And today, Bill Clinton withdrew his support for Hillary.” –Jay Leno

“This week at a fashion show in Rome, a line of dresses were introduced that feature huge pictures of Hillary Clinton’s face. When he heard this, Bill Clinton said, ‘Finally, Hillary’s face on another woman’s body.’” –Conan O’Brien

“Is anybody really that surprised that Hillary Clinton is running for president? I’m not surprised. I mean, if you were married to Bill Clinton … wouldn’t you want to be able to tap his phone, read his mail, and torture him?” –Jay Leno

“Of course, the big question political experts are asking now is what role will Bill Clinton play in Hillary’s campaign. I’m guessing ‘the cheating husband.’” –Jay Leno

“Politics is a dirty business. Hillary Clinton announced she’s running for president, and the Republicans are already busy digging up dirt. They found out that once in her lifetime she slept with Bill Clinton.” –David Letterman

“Yesterday, on a campaign trip, Hillary Clinton suggested that she knows how to deal with evil and bad men, like Osama bin Laden, because she had to put up with her husband. Which explains why Hillary wants to look for bin Laden at the nearest Hooters.” –Conan O’Brien

“In Iowa yesterday, Hillary Clinton was shoring up support a mere year before that state’s presidential caucus. She whipped the crowd into a frenzy with her new campaign slogan, ‘Let The Conversation Begin.’ This may not be the most politically correct thing to say, but I don’t think that slogan’s going to help you with men. … I think the typical response would be, ‘Now?’ You might as well get on your campaign bus, The ‘I Think We Really Need To Talk’ Express, to unveil your new Iraq policy, ‘America, Let’s Pull Over And Just Ask For Directions.’” –Jon Stewart

“Hillary Clinton announced officially she will be running for president. Besides announcing her candidacy on the Internet, she’s also selling all her old headbands on Craigslist.” –Jimmy Kimmel

“Hillary Clinton announced she is running for president of the United States, which isn’t a surprise to many people — except maybe those who just voted her for a second term as senator.” –Jay Leno

“It’s official. Hillary Clinton is running for president of the United States. She said on her Web site, ‘I’m in it to win.’ That may seem obvious, but for Democrats running for president … they have to keep reminding themselves.” –Jay Leno

“Hillary says she has gotten hundreds of calls telling her to go out on the road and campaign for the next two years. And that’s just from her husband, Bill.” –Jay Leno

Add comment May 4th, 2007

First Quarter Spending is In

Here’s an overview of the first quarter spending is in Clinton is the head and shoulders winner in both cash raised and cash on hand.

Fun Raising Trivia

Trivia

Both McCain’s and Obama’s reports showed large numbers of small donors, meaning they can return to those donors for more money. Giuliani’s and Clinton’s reports show donations from large numbers of donors who have maxed out, meaning the candidates must find new sources of cash. Romney and McCain raised less than half of their funds from those large-dollar donations.

Hillary Rodham Clinton raised $26,041,109 from 70,300 contributions.
Barack Obama raised $25,665,688 from 104,000 contributions.
Mitt Romney raised $20,737,149 from 32,074 contributions.

A sizable segment of Romney’s haul came from Utah, suggesting that fellow Mormons were significant contributors. Four of the 10 Zip codes from which Romney received the most money are in Utah, and the leading Zip code is home to Brigham Young University, which Romney attended. He raised $2.8 million in the state, more than one-tenth of his total.

In the Los Angeles area, where Obama and Clinton have waged a high-profile battle to capture the support of big donors and celebrities, particularly in traditionally liberal Hollywood, Clinton collected $892,950 to Obama’s $713,142. The other contenders from both parties raised a combined $1.2 million in that region.

Dennis Kucinich is the only Democratic candidate to have not raised any funds for the general election (that doesn’t mean he isn’t in it to win though).

Add comment April 16th, 2007

Edwards’ wife fear her gun totin’ neighbor

Here’s a great article about class and politics (Edwards’ forte):Winston-Salem Journal | Edwards’ wife says she’s afraid of their neighbor

I love the comment at the bottom:

If this story isn’t a Republican plant, then they are slipping. It is just too good to be true–class warrior lacks common touch. A bunch of snooty quotes, an inventory of the Edwards McMansion (is the indoor handball court separate from the basketball court, or is it dual purpose?), and a rifle toting, flag waving protagonist/victim whose family bought the property in the Depression! Who’s got the film rights? The Swift Boat folks?

Add comment April 11th, 2007

The Decoy Effect, or How to Win an Election

There’s a great article in the Washington Post called The Decoy Effect, or How to Win an Election that speaks to the effect a 3rd candidate can have on the 2 front runners. I found it quite illuminating.

Huber told some people there was also a choice of a four-star restaurant that was farther away than the five-star option. People now gravitated toward the five-star choice, since it was better and closer than the third candidate. (The three-star restaurant was closer, but not as good as the new candidate.)

Another group was given a different third candidate, a two-star restaurant halfway between the first two. Many people now chose the three-star restaurant, because it beat the new option on convenience and quality. (The five-star restaurant outdid this third candidate on only one measure, quality.)

What the decoy effect basically shows is that when people cannot decide between two front-runners, they use the third candidate as a sort of measuring stick. If one front-runner looks much better than the third candidate, people gravitate toward that front-runner. Third candidates, in other words, can make a complicated decision feel simple.

How would this work in the context of the current political race?

Let’s say you are a centrist Democratic voter who cannot decide between Clinton and Obama because you want a candidate who is strong on national security but also someone fresh. You like Clinton on one measure and Obama on the other. Enter Edwards, whom you see as more dovish than Obama but part of the same establishment as Clinton. Obama looks better than Edwards on both counts, whereas Clinton beats Edwards on only the national security issue.

Makes you think, huh?

Add comment April 2nd, 2007

Clinton = Feminist

Clinton receives endorsement from NOW - Boston.com
Hillary Rodham Clinton declared Wednesday that if you look up the word “feminist” in a dictionary, you’ll find her. I can’t believe that that statement held up to focus group scrutiny. Much of America is still intimidated by feminism and feminist ideology.

3 comments March 29th, 2007

Great Post on Political Lying

At Seth Godin - Liar’s Blog he gives a great overview of politics as storytelling and teaches how to do it. I loved it.

I listened to a debate on the radio yesterday between David Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union and Ralph Neas, president of People for the American Way. It was about the upcoming US Senate vote about filibusters. Ostensibly, this was a thoughtful, public-radio exposition of the facts and thoughts behind each side of the debate. It was nothing of the sort.

BRILLIANT
That’s the only word to describe David’s approach. He told a story about fairness. He used phrases like, “up or down vote” and “nominees who have been held hostage for four years” and “what’s in the Constitution.” He spoke calmly and reasonably and never wavered from the story he wanted to tell. If you were inclined to believe his story, it was easy to believe. More important, it was easy to spread.

INCOMPETENT
Ralph Neas approached it like a Moot Court debater. He talked about how Robert Byrd’s previous motions (fifteen years ago) were fundamentally different. Who exactly cares about Robert Byrd? He talked about how the Republicans had filibustered forty (forty!) years ago with Abe Fortas. Ralph may very well have been right about the facts, but it doesn’t matter, does it?

[When marketers talk about politics (and when politicians talk about marketing) it almost always ends up as a degraded conversation because people get emotional over their points of view. That’s not what I’m talking about here. What I’m talking about is the consistent bungling of the Democratic Party as they fail to tell stories that people want to hear.]

John Kerry lost to an unpopular incumbent seeking reelection for just one reason: he insisted on focusing on facts, on issues, on position papers and on nuance. He acted like an intellectual bully, refusing to worry about the story he told. George W. Bush, on the other hand, was absolutely masterful in the way he told a story that a portion of the electorate wanted to hear.

It may be, that like me, you wish that all issues were decided on facts and reliable data. They never are. We’re people, not machines, and we believe stories, not facts.

Ralph Neas doesn’t appear to understand this. If I had been him, I would have repeated the mantra, Antonin Scalia over and over again. I would have talked about what will happen if the court has three more Scalia’s on it. I’d tell that story calmly and carefully and repeatedly. Not everyone dislikes Scalia. That’s okay. You’re never going to persuade everyone of anything. What you can do, though, is persuade the persuadable, persuade the people who are choosing to listen and are open to believing the story you want to tell.

Add comment March 25th, 2007