2008 Election Coverage

Hillary camp: ‘ignore Iowa’ memo is leaked

Hillary Clinton was embarrassed today after an ‘ignore Iowa’ memo was leaked to the media Americas. Her super-organised, impeccably on-message campaign for the White House has suffered a first embarrassment with the leak of an internal memo that urges her to skip the key early caucuses in Iowa - on the ground she has better places to spend money than on a contest she may well lose. I had no idea that early polls have her running third there. It’s kind of the reverse of the rest of the country. They have it Edwards, Obama, Clinton. We’ll see how it shakes out but they are certainly downplaying the importane of Iowa.

Yesterday, Clinton aides were playing down the memo as the unsolicited musings of a minion, which had never been seen by the lady herself and her most senior advisers. They insisted she would make a major effort in Iowa, whose caucuses - set for 14 January next year - traditionally kick off the primary season.

“It’s not the opinion of the campaign,” Ms Clinton herself said in response to a question about the memo, and “It’s not my opinion.”

Add comment May 25th, 2007

Romney is on a roll, in the money and the polls

In spite of what John McCain’s mailers might say, Romney’s on a roll, leading in both in the money and the early states’ polls. Recent polls in the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire show Romney surging with a double-digit lead over Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. The Des Moines Register put Romney’s standing at 30 percent, 12 points ahead of McCain and 13 points over Giuliani. A Zogby poll in New Hampshire shows Romney at 35 percent, with both McCain and Giuliani at just 19.

After a terrific fund-raising quarter, made possible by his business connections and mormon network, he’s had a steady stream of television advertising; the one-term former governor of Massachusetts has caught the attention of both voters and political insiders.

Add comment May 23rd, 2007

Fun times at the GOP Debate

FOXNews.com relives the republican debate. I wanted to pass along this gem:

Mike Huckabee said Congress has “spent money like John Edwards at a beauty shop”. He didn’t quite earn my vote, but that’s what’s so fun about politics.

McCain took time after the debate to praise Guiliani for his poise and handling of Ron Paul implying that our policies are to blame for 9/11. And Huckabee praised him (kind of) during the debate for his integrity regarding his abortion position: “[Giuliani] has been honest about his opinion; he’s been honest about his position. And I think that’s a healthy thing for our party and for this debate.”

Gilmore referred to “Rudy McRomney,” combining the names of McCain, Giuliani and Romney. He cited Giuliani’s position on abortion rights, Huckabee’s decision to raise taxes in Arkansas and Romney’s mandate requiring universal health care while he served as the governor of Massachusetts.

“Did I get left out?” McCain asked to laughter.

“I’ll come back,” Gilmore retorted.

A few seconds later: “It’s a form of flattery to be attacked but I wish my name would get in the moniker. … I could use the bump,” Huckabee said.

Good stuff. McCain and Romney got into it a little bit:

“My fear is that McCain-Kennedy would do to immigration what McCain-Feingold has done to campaign finance and money in politics — and that’s bad,” Romney said.

McCain: “I have not changed my position on even-numbered years or changed because of the different offices that I may be running for.”

It’s a great line John but I’m not sure it’s true.

I don’t know that anyone really one, but I felt like Huckabee made himself look like a serious candidate. Gilmore is overmatched. I’ve heard him speak and he’s not very good on his feet. He can follow a script but when things go amiss he gets flustered

Add comment May 18th, 2007

First Quarter Spending is In

Here’s an overview of the first quarter spending is in Clinton is the head and shoulders winner in both cash raised and cash on hand.

Fun Raising Trivia

Trivia

Both McCain’s and Obama’s reports showed large numbers of small donors, meaning they can return to those donors for more money. Giuliani’s and Clinton’s reports show donations from large numbers of donors who have maxed out, meaning the candidates must find new sources of cash. Romney and McCain raised less than half of their funds from those large-dollar donations.

Hillary Rodham Clinton raised $26,041,109 from 70,300 contributions.
Barack Obama raised $25,665,688 from 104,000 contributions.
Mitt Romney raised $20,737,149 from 32,074 contributions.

A sizable segment of Romney’s haul came from Utah, suggesting that fellow Mormons were significant contributors. Four of the 10 Zip codes from which Romney received the most money are in Utah, and the leading Zip code is home to Brigham Young University, which Romney attended. He raised $2.8 million in the state, more than one-tenth of his total.

In the Los Angeles area, where Obama and Clinton have waged a high-profile battle to capture the support of big donors and celebrities, particularly in traditionally liberal Hollywood, Clinton collected $892,950 to Obama’s $713,142. The other contenders from both parties raised a combined $1.2 million in that region.

Dennis Kucinich is the only Democratic candidate to have not raised any funds for the general election (that doesn’t mean he isn’t in it to win though).

Add comment April 16th, 2007

Great Post on Political Lying

At Seth Godin - Liar’s Blog he gives a great overview of politics as storytelling and teaches how to do it. I loved it.

I listened to a debate on the radio yesterday between David Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union and Ralph Neas, president of People for the American Way. It was about the upcoming US Senate vote about filibusters. Ostensibly, this was a thoughtful, public-radio exposition of the facts and thoughts behind each side of the debate. It was nothing of the sort.

BRILLIANT
That’s the only word to describe David’s approach. He told a story about fairness. He used phrases like, “up or down vote” and “nominees who have been held hostage for four years” and “what’s in the Constitution.” He spoke calmly and reasonably and never wavered from the story he wanted to tell. If you were inclined to believe his story, it was easy to believe. More important, it was easy to spread.

INCOMPETENT
Ralph Neas approached it like a Moot Court debater. He talked about how Robert Byrd’s previous motions (fifteen years ago) were fundamentally different. Who exactly cares about Robert Byrd? He talked about how the Republicans had filibustered forty (forty!) years ago with Abe Fortas. Ralph may very well have been right about the facts, but it doesn’t matter, does it?

[When marketers talk about politics (and when politicians talk about marketing) it almost always ends up as a degraded conversation because people get emotional over their points of view. That’s not what I’m talking about here. What I’m talking about is the consistent bungling of the Democratic Party as they fail to tell stories that people want to hear.]

John Kerry lost to an unpopular incumbent seeking reelection for just one reason: he insisted on focusing on facts, on issues, on position papers and on nuance. He acted like an intellectual bully, refusing to worry about the story he told. George W. Bush, on the other hand, was absolutely masterful in the way he told a story that a portion of the electorate wanted to hear.

It may be, that like me, you wish that all issues were decided on facts and reliable data. They never are. We’re people, not machines, and we believe stories, not facts.

Ralph Neas doesn’t appear to understand this. If I had been him, I would have repeated the mantra, Antonin Scalia over and over again. I would have talked about what will happen if the court has three more Scalia’s on it. I’d tell that story calmly and carefully and repeatedly. Not everyone dislikes Scalia. That’s okay. You’re never going to persuade everyone of anything. What you can do, though, is persuade the persuadable, persuade the people who are choosing to listen and are open to believing the story you want to tell.

Add comment March 25th, 2007

Newt Tests the “Character Scrutiny” Waters

Per the AP: Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich acknowledged he was having an extramarital affair, with his now-wife Callista Bisek, even as he led the charge against President Clinton over the Monica Lewinsky affair.

“The honest answer is yes,” Gingrich, a potential 2008 Republican presidential candidate, said in an interview with Focus on the Family founder James Dobson to be aired Friday, according to a transcript provided to The Associated Press. “There are times that I have fallen short of my own standards. There’s certainly times when I’ve fallen short of God’s standards.”

When I first saw the headline, I figured Romney was starting a smear campaign to keep Gingrich on the sideline. I was surprised to see that Gingrich brought this on himself, likely to test the waters to see if he would endure the kind of scrutiny and ill-will accompanying Giuliani (also like Reagan with 2 divorces). We’ll see if it hurts im or not. He’s got as good a chance as anyone even though he isn’t running.

Add comment March 9th, 2007

Barack Obama Campaign Slogans

I got these via email today and thought they were a riot. 

Choose Your Barack Obama 2008 Presidential Campaign Slogan:

1. Please ignore the Middle-Easterny name.
2. Because the whole “slow-witted Texan with a safe-sounding name” thing didn’t work out so well.
3. Face it, America: It’s me or the Ice Woman.
4. Once you go Barack, you never go back.
5. Barack: Cultural Learnings of Books and the Enlightenment for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of America
6. Hey, what’s the problem? You elected Marion Berry *twice*!
7. Not Hillary Clinton for president.
8. Your last chance for a black president before the country’s overrun by Mexicans.
9. Straight Outta Cul-De-Sac
10. He beats Hillary hands down in the bathing suit competition!
11. After our last president, we need one Hussein.
12. Obama: Just pretend he’s Irish.
13. Restoring English as the official language of State of the Union addresses.
14. C’mon, you KNOW you want to see Trent Lott piss his pants!
15. America: Movin’ on up!
16. It’s time for a different B.O. in the White House.
17. As American as imam’s apple pie!

1 comment February 16th, 2007

Obama can sure work a crowd

Sen. Barack Obama toured Iowa this weekend and was then back in DC this morning.  I’m very impressed with the guy.  one thing I’m just noticing from press, such as this washingtonpost.com article) is how well he performs in person.  He stands up to protesters taunting him and pushes back against the media when they’re out of line.  He is running a scripted campaign, but it doesn’t feel that way.

When protesters shouted for us to bring troops home now, he replied “Come on.  We’re on the same side guys.”  Bush (and most folks… not just to knock Bush) would have patiently waited for security to remove them.  Earlier, he tried to engage protesters to include them in the dialogue before they were thrown out (apparently they refused to be engaged).  Dealing with hostle uninvited bullies trying to hijack your world tells alot about a man in my opinion.

And his comment in the post article about his swimsuit picture was playful enough and truthful enough that swooning journalists had to have been left with a blush and a “shucks you caught me” grin.  He headed the unknown-and-lacks-substance argument off at the pass — at least with those journalists. he’s had some critism about his web2.0 site having some hiccups this morning, but I think he’s running his campaign exactly how he needs to to stay true to himself and be taken seriously.

Add comment February 12th, 2007

Odds on the 2008 Presidential Campaign

Update: 8/23/2007

(old odds are at the bottom)

Hillary Clinton 2-1

Al Gore 6-1

John McCain 5-1

George Allen Jr 50-1

Rudy Giuliani 3-1

Sam Brownback 25-1

Bill Richardson 50-1

Mark Warner 30-1

Mitt Romney 8-1

Mike Huckabee 50-1

Evan Bayh 40-1

Chuck Hagel 200-1

Colin Powell 50-1

Joe Biden 50-1

Bill Frist 50-1

John Edwards 6-1

Newt Gingrich 20-1

Tom Vilsack 50-1

Russ Feingold 50-1

Barack Obama 7-2

Rick Santorum 80-1

Tom Tancredo 100-1

Mike Gravel 100-1

Tom Ridge 60-1

Tom Daschle 60-1

Bill Owens 100-1

Bob Kerrey 100-1

John Kerry 40-1

George Pataki 50-1

Condoleezza Rice 30-1

Gary Locke 100-1

Dick Gephardt 100-1

Wesley Clark 20-1

Dick Cheney 75-1

Howard Dean 100-1

Alberto Gonzales 100-1

Bob Ehrlich 100-1

Charles Schumer 100-1

Harold Ford Jr 100-1

Jack Kemp 100-1

Jeb Bush 100-1

Jay Rockefeller 100-1

Ralph Nader 100-1

Paul Bremmer 150-1

Joe Lieberman 150-1

Bob Graham 150-1

Michael Bloomberg 15-1

Tommy Franks 200-1

Jesse Jackson 200-1

George W Bush 200-1

Dennis Kucinich 200-1

Arnold Schwarzenegger 250-1

Bill Clinton 300-1

Paul Wolfowitz 750-1

Alan Keyes 750-1

Elizabeth Dole 750-1

Clint Eastwood 750-1

Ted Kennedy 750-1

Bill OReilly 750-1

Laura Bush 500-1

James Carville 1000-1

Jesse Ventura 1000-1

Al Sharpton 500-1

John Ashcroft 1500-1

Donald Rumsfeld 500-1

Pat Robertson 2000-1

Bill Maher 2500-1

Donald Trump 1000-1

Michael Moore 1000-1

Chris Dodd 100-1

Doug Stanhope 50-1

Wayne Root 1000-1

Ron Paul 8-1

Fred Thompson 4-1

Tommy Thompson 200-1

Duncan Hunter 200-1

Update: 3/15/2007

Republicans:
6/4 Rudolph Guiliani
3-1 John McCain    
6-1 Mitt Romney    
21-1 Tommy Thompson
26-1 Sam Brownback
34-1 Chuck Hagel 
34-1 George Pataki
34-1 Condoleeza Rice
With the announcement this morning that Barak Obama is forming a presidential exploratory committee, I figured it was time to put together a list of who’s running with odds on each (let’s not pretend it isn’t a horse race):

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton - 9:5 odds
Barak Obama - 5:2 odds
John Edwards - 12:1
Al Gore - 50:1
Chris Dodd - 60:1
Joseph R. Biden - 75:1
Bill Richardson - 75:1
Tom Vilsack - 75:1
Wesley Clark - 100:1
John Kerry - 120:1
Dennis Kucinich - 250:1
Republicans:

John McCain - 8:5 odds
Mitt Romney - 3:1 odds
Rudy Giuliani - 6:1
Newt Gingrich - 80:1
Jim Gilmore - 99:1
Tommy G. Thompson - 99:1
Chuck Hagel - 100:1
Mike Huckabee - 100:1
Tom Tancredo - 100:1
Sam Brownback - 120:1
Duncan Hunter - 150:1

Update - 3/2/2007:

No real change on the democatic side.  Republican odds have shifted drastically at the top with McCain slipping and Giuliani pulling even / slightly ahead.  Duncan Hunter has gained as well with a strong showing in a recent SC straw poll.  It’s hard to handicap without an obvious conservative candidate.  Without further delay:

Republicans:

Rudy Giuliani - 3:1
John McCain - 3:1 odds
Mitt Romney - 4:1 odds
Duncan Hunter - 50:1
Newt Gingrich - 50:1
Jim Gilmore - 75:1
Chuck Hagel - 100:1
Mike Huckabee - 100:1
Tommy G. Thompson - 120:1
Tom Tancredo - 150:1
Sam Brownback - 150:1

List of candidates per New York Times

3 comments January 16th, 2007

Election was bad for us, says Srucnoc

Chml Srucnoc has finally commented on last month’s elections.  It was an overall loss he said, though many libertarians and limited-government supporters were hopeful that government mistrust might chalk up gains for the party. 

Per oregonLive 

Libertarian activists pegged 2006 as an anti-government revolution, but they got only one piece of what they wanted: a handful of initiatives that limit government power to condemn private property. Broader property rights proposals, state spending caps and limits on politicians’ time in office all fizzled in last week’s election.

But limited-government advocates might run into a skeptical audience in 2008, public opinion experts say. Although voters are unhappy with politicians, last week they agreed to pay for more services and elected many Democrats.

Add comment November 19th, 2006