Posts filed under 'John Edwards'
Hillary Clinton was embarrassed today after an ‘ignore Iowa’ memo was leaked to the media Americas. Her super-organised, impeccably on-message campaign for the White House has suffered a first embarrassment with the leak of an internal memo that urges her to skip the key early caucuses in Iowa - on the ground she has better places to spend money than on a contest she may well lose. I had no idea that early polls have her running third there. It’s kind of the reverse of the rest of the country. They have it Edwards, Obama, Clinton. We’ll see how it shakes out but they are certainly downplaying the importane of Iowa.
Yesterday, Clinton aides were playing down the memo as the unsolicited musings of a minion, which had never been seen by the lady herself and her most senior advisers. They insisted she would make a major effort in Iowa, whose caucuses - set for 14 January next year - traditionally kick off the primary season.
“It’s not the opinion of the campaign,” Ms Clinton herself said in response to a question about the memo, and “It’s not my opinion.”
May 25th, 2007
Barack Obama is barnstorming the nation this week, hoping to secure exclusivity as the anti-war candidate get republicans to vote to end the war. I think his sentiment is sincere, but I doubt his behavior would be the same if he wasn’t running for president. In an email to supporters this week, he directs them to a form on his site to email republican senators to get the votes override a veto. He says:
Barack has been traveling across the country asking people to speak out and let their Senators know that it’s time to end the Iraq war.
One Republican colleague has already called this “not Senatorial.” But this isn’t about Washington etiquette, it’s about bringing our troops home.
This isn’t a game. We need just 16 additional votes to override the president’s veto and bring to a close this sad chapter in American history.
It’s going to take some convincing, but Senators need to hear from people in their states that they can join us to bring a responsible end to the war.
That’s where you come in. In your state, an incumbent Senator who voted against ending the war will face a re-election battle in 2008. They will have to make clear very soon whether they will continue to block efforts to bring the troops home.
Will you speak out now and add your voice to the growing public pressure to end the war?
For those myopic souls wanting an immediate pullout, it seems that they’ve found their man. Edwards is talking almost exclusively about domestic issues (not really but as far as his press goes, he might as well be); Hillary is the conservative of the bunch (not surprising to anyone other than Fox News viewers) leaving the popular position for the main issue on voters’ minds for Obama to champion.
May 15th, 2007
It’s been a while since I posted. Romney is surging, making the election odds page out dated. He’s on the cover of time this week thanks to Slate saying we can’t elect a candidate that follows a conman (per the article, Mormonism is Scientology + 150 years). More recently, the Good Rev. Al “Rhyme Master” Sharpton told a local debate audience:
“As for the one Mormon running for office, those who really believe in God will defeat him anyways, so don’t worry about that; that’s a temporary situation,” Sharpton said during a debate with Hitchens at the New York Public Library.”
It’s one thing to say Romney believes something silly (Slate)… it’s something else to say that he doesn’t really believe it. I don’t quite understand Mr. Al (Let’s all eat some cake).
It turns out Rudy does consulting on the side more those Oxy-moron drug liars. McCain sent out an email this week:
“What does that mean for our strategy? It means that the early states: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina will become more important. These contests will set the stage and establish momentum going into Florida on January 29 and then very quickly into the February 5 contests.
As of today, Senator McCain has built a tremendous organization in those states. And, the state by state polling reveals voters in these states have heard his message and are moved by it. The American Research Group released a handful of statewide polls this week showing Senator McCain leading in the key early states: Iowa (+7), New Hampshire(+5) and South Carolina(+13). “
Anyone not employed by his campaign is coming to different conclusions, but to each his own I suppose. The democrats have been pretty boring. Obama picked up donations from 50,000 new donors last month. That’s pretty impressive. That’s about how many the next closest competitor had in Q1. Nobody else releases info like that… he just does it for the hans and frans show off / intimidation factor. Populist Edwards has introduced a number of new, detailed policy proposals, address health care, energy, education and poverty reduction. He’s proposed undoing Bush tax cuts and raising social security tax to pay for the estimated cost of $199 Kajillion / year.
Fred Thomas has preannounced his candidacy, probably eliminating Gingrich from consideration unless his sizable ego gets in the way of his reason and desire to save face. Clinton hasn’t done anything much lately. Nothing noteworthy, good or bad…. kind of a nutshell critique of her candidacy.
That’s all folks. And remember, vote early and vote often!
May 11th, 2007
Here’s an overview of the first quarter spending is in Clinton is the head and shoulders winner in both cash raised and cash on hand.
| Party |
First Name |
Last Name |
Money Raised |
Money Spent |
Cash on Hand |
Just for the Primary |
Net Contributions |
| Democrat |
Joe |
Biden |
$4,013,090.00 |
$1,174,174.00 |
$2,838,916.00 |
$3,690,008.00 |
$2,110,990.00 |
| Democrat |
Hillary |
Clinton |
$36,054,569.00 |
$5,079,789.00 |
$30,974,780.00 |
$19,100,000.00 |
$26,041,109.00 |
| Democrat |
Chris |
Dodd |
$8,795,706.00 |
$1,313,239.00 |
$7,482,467.00 |
$7,754,658.00 |
$4,043,757.00 |
| Democrat |
John |
Edwards |
$14,031,663.00 |
$3,299,782.00 |
$10,731,881.00 |
$13,064,804.00 |
$14,021,504.00 |
| Democrat |
Dennis |
Kucinich |
$344,891.00 |
$194,217.00 |
$163,887.00 |
$- |
$344,651.00 |
| Democrat |
Barack |
Obama |
$25,797,722.00 |
$6,605,201.00 |
$19,192,521.00 |
$24,800,000.00 |
$25,665,688.00 |
| Democrat |
Bill |
Richardson |
$6,249,355.00 |
$1,226,882.00 |
$5,022,473.00 |
$6,230,357.00 |
$6,236,557.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Republican |
Sam |
Brownback |
$1,871,058.00 |
$1,064,432.00 |
$806,626.00 |
$1,257,171.00 |
$1,257,171.00 |
| Republican |
Jim |
Gilmore |
$203,897.00 |
$113,790.00 |
$90,107.00 |
$174,790.00 |
$174,790.00 |
| Republican |
Rudy |
Giuliani |
$16,623,410.00 |
$5,688,208.00 |
$11,949,735.00 |
$13,579,900.00 |
$14,731,897.00 |
| Republican |
Mike |
Huckabee |
$544,157.00 |
$170,239.00 |
$373,918.00 |
$544,157.00 |
$544,157.00 |
| Republican |
Duncan |
Hunter |
$538,524.00 |
$265,972.00 |
$272,552.00 |
$457,643.00 |
$499,874.00 |
| Republican |
John |
McCain |
$13,087,560.00 |
$8,379,215.00 |
$5,180,799.00 |
$12,965,055.00 |
$12,992,655.00 |
| Republican |
Ron |
Paul |
$639,989.00 |
$115,070.00 |
$524,919.00 |
$639,989.00 |
$638,389.00 |
| Republican |
Mitt |
Romney |
$23,434,634.00 |
$11,570,981.00 |
$11,863,653.00 |
$20,737,149.00 |
$20,737,149.00 |
| Republican |
Tom |
Tancredo |
$1,256,090.00 |
$711,012.00 |
$575,078.00 |
$1,000,000.00 |
$1,185,536.00 |
| Republican |
Tommy |
Thompson |
$391,628.00 |
$252,405.00 |
$139,723.00 |
$308,029.00 |
$315,036.00 |
Fun Raising Trivia
Trivia
Both McCain’s and Obama’s reports showed large numbers of small donors, meaning they can return to those donors for more money. Giuliani’s and Clinton’s reports show donations from large numbers of donors who have maxed out, meaning the candidates must find new sources of cash. Romney and McCain raised less than half of their funds from those large-dollar donations.
Hillary Rodham Clinton raised $26,041,109 from 70,300 contributions.
Barack Obama raised $25,665,688 from 104,000 contributions.
Mitt Romney raised $20,737,149 from 32,074 contributions.
A sizable segment of Romney’s haul came from Utah, suggesting that fellow Mormons were significant contributors. Four of the 10 Zip codes from which Romney received the most money are in Utah, and the leading Zip code is home to Brigham Young University, which Romney attended. He raised $2.8 million in the state, more than one-tenth of his total.
In the Los Angeles area, where Obama and Clinton have waged a high-profile battle to capture the support of big donors and celebrities, particularly in traditionally liberal Hollywood, Clinton collected $892,950 to Obama’s $713,142. The other contenders from both parties raised a combined $1.2 million in that region.
Dennis Kucinich is the only Democratic candidate to have not raised any funds for the general election (that doesn’t mean he isn’t in it to win though).
April 16th, 2007
Here’s a great article about class and politics (Edwards’ forte):Winston-Salem Journal | Edwards’ wife says she’s afraid of their neighbor
I love the comment at the bottom:
If this story isn’t a Republican plant, then they are slipping. It is just too good to be true–class warrior lacks common touch. A bunch of snooty quotes, an inventory of the Edwards McMansion (is the indoor handball court separate from the basketball court, or is it dual purpose?), and a rifle toting, flag waving protagonist/victim whose family bought the property in the Depression! Who’s got the film rights? The Swift Boat folks?
April 11th, 2007
There’s a great article in the Washington Post called The Decoy Effect, or How to Win an Election that speaks to the effect a 3rd candidate can have on the 2 front runners. I found it quite illuminating.
Huber told some people there was also a choice of a four-star restaurant that was farther away than the five-star option. People now gravitated toward the five-star choice, since it was better and closer than the third candidate. (The three-star restaurant was closer, but not as good as the new candidate.)
Another group was given a different third candidate, a two-star restaurant halfway between the first two. Many people now chose the three-star restaurant, because it beat the new option on convenience and quality. (The five-star restaurant outdid this third candidate on only one measure, quality.)
What the decoy effect basically shows is that when people cannot decide between two front-runners, they use the third candidate as a sort of measuring stick. If one front-runner looks much better than the third candidate, people gravitate toward that front-runner. Third candidates, in other words, can make a complicated decision feel simple.
How would this work in the context of the current political race?
Let’s say you are a centrist Democratic voter who cannot decide between Clinton and Obama because you want a candidate who is strong on national security but also someone fresh. You like Clinton on one measure and Obama on the other. Enter Edwards, whom you see as more dovish than Obama but part of the same establishment as Clinton. Obama looks better than Edwards on both counts, whereas Clinton beats Edwards on only the national security issue.
Makes you think, huh?
April 2nd, 2007
Update: 8/23/2007
(old odds are at the bottom)
Hillary Clinton 2-1
Al Gore 6-1
John McCain 5-1
George Allen Jr 50-1
Rudy Giuliani 3-1
Sam Brownback 25-1
Bill Richardson 50-1
Mark Warner 30-1
Mitt Romney 8-1
Mike Huckabee 50-1
Evan Bayh 40-1
Chuck Hagel 200-1
Colin Powell 50-1
Joe Biden 50-1
Bill Frist 50-1
John Edwards 6-1
Newt Gingrich 20-1
Tom Vilsack 50-1
Russ Feingold 50-1
Barack Obama 7-2
Rick Santorum 80-1
Tom Tancredo 100-1
Mike Gravel 100-1
Tom Ridge 60-1
Tom Daschle 60-1
Bill Owens 100-1
Bob Kerrey 100-1
John Kerry 40-1
George Pataki 50-1
Condoleezza Rice 30-1
Gary Locke 100-1
Dick Gephardt 100-1
Wesley Clark 20-1
Dick Cheney 75-1
Howard Dean 100-1
Alberto Gonzales 100-1
Bob Ehrlich 100-1
Charles Schumer 100-1
Harold Ford Jr 100-1
Jack Kemp 100-1
Jeb Bush 100-1
Jay Rockefeller 100-1
Ralph Nader 100-1
Paul Bremmer 150-1
Joe Lieberman 150-1
Bob Graham 150-1
Michael Bloomberg 15-1
Tommy Franks 200-1
Jesse Jackson 200-1
George W Bush 200-1
Dennis Kucinich 200-1
Arnold Schwarzenegger 250-1
Bill Clinton 300-1
Paul Wolfowitz 750-1
Alan Keyes 750-1
Elizabeth Dole 750-1
Clint Eastwood 750-1
Ted Kennedy 750-1
Bill OReilly 750-1
Laura Bush 500-1
James Carville 1000-1
Jesse Ventura 1000-1
Al Sharpton 500-1
John Ashcroft 1500-1
Donald Rumsfeld 500-1
Pat Robertson 2000-1
Bill Maher 2500-1
Donald Trump 1000-1
Michael Moore 1000-1
Chris Dodd 100-1
Doug Stanhope 50-1
Wayne Root 1000-1
Ron Paul 8-1
Fred Thompson 4-1
Tommy Thompson 200-1
Duncan Hunter 200-1
Update: 3/15/2007
Republicans:
6/4 Rudolph Guiliani
3-1 John McCain
6-1 Mitt Romney
21-1 Tommy Thompson
26-1 Sam Brownback
34-1 Chuck Hagel
34-1 George Pataki
34-1 Condoleeza Rice
With the announcement this morning that Barak Obama is forming a presidential exploratory committee, I figured it was time to put together a list of who’s running with odds on each (let’s not pretend it isn’t a horse race):
Democrats:
Hillary Clinton - 9:5 odds
Barak Obama - 5:2 odds
John Edwards - 12:1
Al Gore - 50:1
Chris Dodd - 60:1
Joseph R. Biden - 75:1
Bill Richardson - 75:1
Tom Vilsack - 75:1
Wesley Clark - 100:1
John Kerry - 120:1
Dennis Kucinich - 250:1
Republicans:
John McCain - 8:5 odds
Mitt Romney - 3:1 odds
Rudy Giuliani - 6:1
Newt Gingrich - 80:1
Jim Gilmore - 99:1
Tommy G. Thompson - 99:1
Chuck Hagel - 100:1
Mike Huckabee - 100:1
Tom Tancredo - 100:1
Sam Brownback - 120:1
Duncan Hunter - 150:1
Update - 3/2/2007:
No real change on the democatic side. Republican odds have shifted drastically at the top with McCain slipping and Giuliani pulling even / slightly ahead. Duncan Hunter has gained as well with a strong showing in a recent SC straw poll. It’s hard to handicap without an obvious conservative candidate. Without further delay:
Republicans:
Rudy Giuliani - 3:1
John McCain - 3:1 odds
Mitt Romney - 4:1 odds
Duncan Hunter - 50:1
Newt Gingrich - 50:1
Jim Gilmore - 75:1
Chuck Hagel - 100:1
Mike Huckabee - 100:1
Tommy G. Thompson - 120:1
Tom Tancredo - 150:1
Sam Brownback - 150:1
List of candidates per New York Times
January 16th, 2007