Here’s an overview of the first quarter spending is in Clinton is the head and shoulders winner in both cash raised and cash on hand.
| Party |
First Name |
Last Name |
Money Raised |
Money Spent |
Cash on Hand |
Just for the Primary |
Net Contributions |
| Democrat |
Joe |
Biden |
$4,013,090.00 |
$1,174,174.00 |
$2,838,916.00 |
$3,690,008.00 |
$2,110,990.00 |
| Democrat |
Hillary |
Clinton |
$36,054,569.00 |
$5,079,789.00 |
$30,974,780.00 |
$19,100,000.00 |
$26,041,109.00 |
| Democrat |
Chris |
Dodd |
$8,795,706.00 |
$1,313,239.00 |
$7,482,467.00 |
$7,754,658.00 |
$4,043,757.00 |
| Democrat |
John |
Edwards |
$14,031,663.00 |
$3,299,782.00 |
$10,731,881.00 |
$13,064,804.00 |
$14,021,504.00 |
| Democrat |
Dennis |
Kucinich |
$344,891.00 |
$194,217.00 |
$163,887.00 |
$- |
$344,651.00 |
| Democrat |
Barack |
Obama |
$25,797,722.00 |
$6,605,201.00 |
$19,192,521.00 |
$24,800,000.00 |
$25,665,688.00 |
| Democrat |
Bill |
Richardson |
$6,249,355.00 |
$1,226,882.00 |
$5,022,473.00 |
$6,230,357.00 |
$6,236,557.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Republican |
Sam |
Brownback |
$1,871,058.00 |
$1,064,432.00 |
$806,626.00 |
$1,257,171.00 |
$1,257,171.00 |
| Republican |
Jim |
Gilmore |
$203,897.00 |
$113,790.00 |
$90,107.00 |
$174,790.00 |
$174,790.00 |
| Republican |
Rudy |
Giuliani |
$16,623,410.00 |
$5,688,208.00 |
$11,949,735.00 |
$13,579,900.00 |
$14,731,897.00 |
| Republican |
Mike |
Huckabee |
$544,157.00 |
$170,239.00 |
$373,918.00 |
$544,157.00 |
$544,157.00 |
| Republican |
Duncan |
Hunter |
$538,524.00 |
$265,972.00 |
$272,552.00 |
$457,643.00 |
$499,874.00 |
| Republican |
John |
McCain |
$13,087,560.00 |
$8,379,215.00 |
$5,180,799.00 |
$12,965,055.00 |
$12,992,655.00 |
| Republican |
Ron |
Paul |
$639,989.00 |
$115,070.00 |
$524,919.00 |
$639,989.00 |
$638,389.00 |
| Republican |
Mitt |
Romney |
$23,434,634.00 |
$11,570,981.00 |
$11,863,653.00 |
$20,737,149.00 |
$20,737,149.00 |
| Republican |
Tom |
Tancredo |
$1,256,090.00 |
$711,012.00 |
$575,078.00 |
$1,000,000.00 |
$1,185,536.00 |
| Republican |
Tommy |
Thompson |
$391,628.00 |
$252,405.00 |
$139,723.00 |
$308,029.00 |
$315,036.00 |
Fun Raising Trivia
Trivia
Both McCain’s and Obama’s reports showed large numbers of small donors, meaning they can return to those donors for more money. Giuliani’s and Clinton’s reports show donations from large numbers of donors who have maxed out, meaning the candidates must find new sources of cash. Romney and McCain raised less than half of their funds from those large-dollar donations.
Hillary Rodham Clinton raised $26,041,109 from 70,300 contributions.
Barack Obama raised $25,665,688 from 104,000 contributions.
Mitt Romney raised $20,737,149 from 32,074 contributions.
A sizable segment of Romney’s haul came from Utah, suggesting that fellow Mormons were significant contributors. Four of the 10 Zip codes from which Romney received the most money are in Utah, and the leading Zip code is home to Brigham Young University, which Romney attended. He raised $2.8 million in the state, more than one-tenth of his total.
In the Los Angeles area, where Obama and Clinton have waged a high-profile battle to capture the support of big donors and celebrities, particularly in traditionally liberal Hollywood, Clinton collected $892,950 to Obama’s $713,142. The other contenders from both parties raised a combined $1.2 million in that region.
Dennis Kucinich is the only Democratic candidate to have not raised any funds for the general election (that doesn’t mean he isn’t in it to win though).
April 16th, 2007
At Seth Godin - Liar’s Blog he gives a great overview of politics as storytelling and teaches how to do it. I loved it.
I listened to a debate on the radio yesterday between David Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union and Ralph Neas, president of People for the American Way. It was about the upcoming US Senate vote about filibusters. Ostensibly, this was a thoughtful, public-radio exposition of the facts and thoughts behind each side of the debate. It was nothing of the sort.
BRILLIANT
That’s the only word to describe David’s approach. He told a story about fairness. He used phrases like, “up or down vote” and “nominees who have been held hostage for four years” and “what’s in the Constitution.” He spoke calmly and reasonably and never wavered from the story he wanted to tell. If you were inclined to believe his story, it was easy to believe. More important, it was easy to spread.
INCOMPETENT
Ralph Neas approached it like a Moot Court debater. He talked about how Robert Byrd’s previous motions (fifteen years ago) were fundamentally different. Who exactly cares about Robert Byrd? He talked about how the Republicans had filibustered forty (forty!) years ago with Abe Fortas. Ralph may very well have been right about the facts, but it doesn’t matter, does it?
[When marketers talk about politics (and when politicians talk about marketing) it almost always ends up as a degraded conversation because people get emotional over their points of view. That’s not what I’m talking about here. What I’m talking about is the consistent bungling of the Democratic Party as they fail to tell stories that people want to hear.]
John Kerry lost to an unpopular incumbent seeking reelection for just one reason: he insisted on focusing on facts, on issues, on position papers and on nuance. He acted like an intellectual bully, refusing to worry about the story he told. George W. Bush, on the other hand, was absolutely masterful in the way he told a story that a portion of the electorate wanted to hear.
It may be, that like me, you wish that all issues were decided on facts and reliable data. They never are. We’re people, not machines, and we believe stories, not facts.
Ralph Neas doesn’t appear to understand this. If I had been him, I would have repeated the mantra, Antonin Scalia over and over again. I would have talked about what will happen if the court has three more Scalia’s on it. I’d tell that story calmly and carefully and repeatedly. Not everyone dislikes Scalia. That’s okay. You’re never going to persuade everyone of anything. What you can do, though, is persuade the persuadable, persuade the people who are choosing to listen and are open to believing the story you want to tell.
March 25th, 2007
John McCain, once a folk hero, bombs prime time is an entertaining look at some of the potential pitfalls facing McCain in his quest for the presidency. I enjoyed the following:
The past two presidents have spoiled Americans with their boomer-era energy and (relative) youth. We expect to see our president’s out jogging or biking or clearing the endless quantities of photo-op-ready brush on their ranch. As JFK knew well enough four decades ago to hide his own infirmities, we like a president with vigor.
Complicating McCain’s quest, he’s facing competitors in both the primary and the general election that positively ooze health and youth. On the Democratic side, Barack Obama and John Edwards both qualify as eye candy. As for Republicans, Giuliani, while not exactly centerfold material, is still a reasonably youthful guy with a carefully cultivated tough-guy persona. And Mitt Romney? Dear god, if the man’s hair were any bigger or his teeth any more gleaming he’d be Tony Robbins.
The Romney bit goes right along with his own realization disclosed last week, that his hair might be too pretty for him to be elected.
March 2nd, 2007
Update: 8/23/2007
(old odds are at the bottom)
Hillary Clinton 2-1
Al Gore 6-1
John McCain 5-1
George Allen Jr 50-1
Rudy Giuliani 3-1
Sam Brownback 25-1
Bill Richardson 50-1
Mark Warner 30-1
Mitt Romney 8-1
Mike Huckabee 50-1
Evan Bayh 40-1
Chuck Hagel 200-1
Colin Powell 50-1
Joe Biden 50-1
Bill Frist 50-1
John Edwards 6-1
Newt Gingrich 20-1
Tom Vilsack 50-1
Russ Feingold 50-1
Barack Obama 7-2
Rick Santorum 80-1
Tom Tancredo 100-1
Mike Gravel 100-1
Tom Ridge 60-1
Tom Daschle 60-1
Bill Owens 100-1
Bob Kerrey 100-1
John Kerry 40-1
George Pataki 50-1
Condoleezza Rice 30-1
Gary Locke 100-1
Dick Gephardt 100-1
Wesley Clark 20-1
Dick Cheney 75-1
Howard Dean 100-1
Alberto Gonzales 100-1
Bob Ehrlich 100-1
Charles Schumer 100-1
Harold Ford Jr 100-1
Jack Kemp 100-1
Jeb Bush 100-1
Jay Rockefeller 100-1
Ralph Nader 100-1
Paul Bremmer 150-1
Joe Lieberman 150-1
Bob Graham 150-1
Michael Bloomberg 15-1
Tommy Franks 200-1
Jesse Jackson 200-1
George W Bush 200-1
Dennis Kucinich 200-1
Arnold Schwarzenegger 250-1
Bill Clinton 300-1
Paul Wolfowitz 750-1
Alan Keyes 750-1
Elizabeth Dole 750-1
Clint Eastwood 750-1
Ted Kennedy 750-1
Bill OReilly 750-1
Laura Bush 500-1
James Carville 1000-1
Jesse Ventura 1000-1
Al Sharpton 500-1
John Ashcroft 1500-1
Donald Rumsfeld 500-1
Pat Robertson 2000-1
Bill Maher 2500-1
Donald Trump 1000-1
Michael Moore 1000-1
Chris Dodd 100-1
Doug Stanhope 50-1
Wayne Root 1000-1
Ron Paul 8-1
Fred Thompson 4-1
Tommy Thompson 200-1
Duncan Hunter 200-1
Update: 3/15/2007
Republicans:
6/4 Rudolph Guiliani
3-1 John McCain
6-1 Mitt Romney
21-1 Tommy Thompson
26-1 Sam Brownback
34-1 Chuck Hagel
34-1 George Pataki
34-1 Condoleeza Rice
With the announcement this morning that Barak Obama is forming a presidential exploratory committee, I figured it was time to put together a list of who’s running with odds on each (let’s not pretend it isn’t a horse race):
Democrats:
Hillary Clinton - 9:5 odds
Barak Obama - 5:2 odds
John Edwards - 12:1
Al Gore - 50:1
Chris Dodd - 60:1
Joseph R. Biden - 75:1
Bill Richardson - 75:1
Tom Vilsack - 75:1
Wesley Clark - 100:1
John Kerry - 120:1
Dennis Kucinich - 250:1
Republicans:
John McCain - 8:5 odds
Mitt Romney - 3:1 odds
Rudy Giuliani - 6:1
Newt Gingrich - 80:1
Jim Gilmore - 99:1
Tommy G. Thompson - 99:1
Chuck Hagel - 100:1
Mike Huckabee - 100:1
Tom Tancredo - 100:1
Sam Brownback - 120:1
Duncan Hunter - 150:1
Update - 3/2/2007:
No real change on the democatic side. Republican odds have shifted drastically at the top with McCain slipping and Giuliani pulling even / slightly ahead. Duncan Hunter has gained as well with a strong showing in a recent SC straw poll. It’s hard to handicap without an obvious conservative candidate. Without further delay:
Republicans:
Rudy Giuliani - 3:1
John McCain - 3:1 odds
Mitt Romney - 4:1 odds
Duncan Hunter - 50:1
Newt Gingrich - 50:1
Jim Gilmore - 75:1
Chuck Hagel - 100:1
Mike Huckabee - 100:1
Tommy G. Thompson - 120:1
Tom Tancredo - 150:1
Sam Brownback - 150:1
List of candidates per New York Times
January 16th, 2007